Seasonal Fire Weather/Fire Danger Outlook
for the Northwest
Northwest Interagency Coordination
Center, May 2005
Seasonal Fire Weather/Fire Danger Outlook
for the Northwest
Northwest Interagency Coordination
Center, May 2005
Potential severity of the fire season is determined using techniques that correlate weather, fuel moisture, and fire danger information with historical fire and resource demand records. If June continues the much wetter-than-usual trend established in April and May, the threat of an above-average fire season will be low.
This year’s winter weather pattern was typical of weak El Nino conditions. Although weak El Nino conditions continued into the spring, a drastic weather pattern change occurred, bringing much needed rain and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest. May’s wet weather moved northward into eastern Washington, and in Oregon May was even wetter than April. For the two-month period, Oregon received 150-300% of normal rainfall and Washington 70-150% of average. In past drought years, the severity of the fire season has significantly decreased when April and May rainfall exceeded 150% of average.
The outlook for June through August favors
a wetter-than-usual summer in the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rocky
Mountains, and the Dakotas. If long-range weather outlooks are incorrect
and the summer turns hot and dry, live and dead fuel moisture will contribute
to intense burning in timber fuels, plume development and long-range spotting.
However, based upon current and forecast information, two of the Fire Management
implications for the most likely scenario are: 1) An overall average fire
season in the Northwest, and 2) A later-than-usual start to the fire season,
but one that may last longer into the fall.
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